UFT Election 25 Dissection: ABC Broke New Ground, Just Not Enough to Win, While ARISE Dived

With indications that ABC will continue to function, I'm writing this analysis as a warning sign for the future of oppo in the UFT as I can foresee the divisions not going away and a similar two slate situation emerging again. I am making the case that only an ABC-like strategy and organization - or dis-organization of individuals can beat Unity. (On Thursday, June 19th, ICEUFT will meet in person to take a deep dive into the issues raised here.) 

That doesn't mean legacy caucuses go away and continue to do the work they do on social justice and other issues, but release their people to run with an ABC-like group while supporting the effort. Knowing the caucus-first mentality, don't expect this to happen on an organizational level, but I appeal to the individuals in the caucuses to think this through. 

 

ARISE spent thousands of dollars on campaign and a glossy flier (almost a work of art) and raced to hundreds of schools to stuff mail boxes, while ABC spend a minimal amount and focused on its people getting out the vote in their schools. 

 

If you are looking for the difference in outcomes, look at these numbers: 

 

ABC ran 560 candidates, 520 of them in the schools (about 40 retirees) while ARISE, despite bragging of the largest number of candidates in decades, had only 490 or so, with 140 retirees, a difference of about 150 in school people. Back in the fall when people were calling for both slates to unite, at least one ARISE steering committee member mocked ABC as being only 7 people and claiming ABC could not get a slate together and would have to come begging. That led to a mentality within ARISE that ABC would fail. 

Monday June 16, 2025 

 

I received a post-election call from a long-time major oppo left-leaning activist from years ago, who did not run in the election, praising ABC on the outcome of the election  - a group of individuals came together - people who had never worked with each other in the past - to win almost 18k and 32% of the votes - the largest oppo vote total in history despite another slate running. He was impressed. 

 

Another left-leaning non-candidate activist also was surprised at the 32% outcome. We had argued throughout the campaign over my contention ABC had a chance to win -- my odds were 10%. His were 1%. My position that ABC could win even with two slates, which was much mocked, while not proven, showed that it was possible. What I never considered was how poorly the legacy caucuses would do - and I even include Unity, given their 54%.

 

Losing by 22 points to Unity still put ABC closer to beating Unity than any oppo I can remember. During the campaign, Unity focused its attacks on ABC and some ARISE leaders from NAC and RA spent more time attacking ABC than Unity, and receiving much praise from Unity people for doing so. This is not to taint all of ARISE, most of whom, especially those in MORE, mostly refrained from attacks. I detected a sense of growing respect, despite differences, between some ABC and MORE people. From the beginning last summer, ABC was open to individuals from MORE running with ABC and some did and played an important role.

 

I've seen some comments from ARISE people talking about the two oppo groups lost to Unity, as if both outcomes were equivalent, thus burying the lead. ABC finished 22% points behind Unity while the ARISE legacy caucuses, despite decades of so-called organizing, finished 40% points behind Unity. 

 

A flip of 11% points between ABC and Unity would have put ABC in a tie with Unity. As people are already looking to 2028, keep this in mind. But don't expect the legacy caucuses to learn a lesson and some in NAC and RA, not willing to face the truth, attribute the difference to dirty tactics or social media or shady practices.

 

Back in December when everyone was going nuts over two slates running against Unity I put forth reasons I thought ABC had a chance of winning: UFT Elections: The Two Slate Solution - Keep Calm. Here were a few key takeaways then (in red) and my current response:

• I've maintained the only way to win this election with the prospects of building dynamic change into the UFT is by enlisting large numbers of working UFTers. Do not rely on retirees to win and dominate a fossilized union (yes I am one of these fossils.) The current configuration of the legacy caucuses unfortunately leads us in this direction.

There was an increase in turnout of 15% up to 28%. ABC needed closer to 33% turnout. For an upstart non-caucus based group, we did not get deep enough but showed a path to victory even with two oppos -- and even if we had run common candidates we would have lost in every area other than the 7 high school seats.

• The 63% retiree vote that the legacy caucuses are relying to deliver will not hold up for this election. In the 2022 UFT general election retirees won 29% -the same number they did in the 2021 RTC election. In the latter election word was out about the medicare situation - my biggest disappointment in that election was not seeing the retiree vote expand. That we didn't increase the retiree vote from the year before when few knew about the health plan changes. That led to me being pessimistic for the past June election. I was wrong. We ran a great campaign but the difference maker: Marianne. Where will she land in this election and if she doesn't get her people involved the retiree vote will drop significantly. Unity still won over 10k in the 2024 chapter loss. Expect that to hold and grow as Unity supporters may have turned on Tom Murphy as RTC leader but may not be willing to turn over the entire union to what will clearly be labeled a left-wing opposition run by legacy caucuses that they have fought for years. RA did not have a bad rep a year ago.

This prediction came through - Unity clawed back 3k votes to get 13K this time but ABC got 9K and ARISE 3k -- not enough to win the retiree vote but close. Clearly RA failed drastically in dropping from 17K a year ago but ABC getting 3x their total proved the influence of Marianne, something my pals in RA had been downgrading, thinking it was their organizing a year ago.  

• ABC is the non-ideological, non-sectarian option with people from every caucus, including Unity, so Unity retirees who know the score may go ABC, but not with a slate dominated with MORE candidates.  

Give me a check on this one. MORE has over 500 members. RA counted on its 300 delegates, who had no say in the choice to run with ARISE to come through. NAC has shown little presence in the schools and did not have faith in the possibilities of ABC and felt an alliance with MORE would make a difference. I argued the opposite to them, to no avail. 

•  The numbers from the UFC full frontal coalition vote in 2022 were not much different from the smaller MORE/NAC coalition in 2016. Why would this election be any different from the in-service vote (Mah Nishtanah), especially since what was UFC is diminished? Given the 2022 vote and reduced caucus coalitions, I maintain Unity would win the election if we were limited to a coalition run similar to UFC, which the legacy caucuses not even reaching the same levels of organizing that UFC, had reached. 

I wrote:

UFC's main success was the increased % for UFC but that was due to Unity drops which did not go to UFC. That dropped Unity vote just might shift into the ABC column due to the Unity presence in ABC.  UFC did not bump up the in-service vote or even the retiree vote in that election.  I contend that with a weakened UFC, these numbers will remain constant for the caucus coalition, with the only wild cards retirees. The only way to win is to go after the 80% who don't usually vote, not an easy task but that looks like the major initiative of ABC and to siphon off Unity votes.

Constant? I was wrong. I actually thought ARISE might get 20-25% and ABC over 30%. And I was wrong about Unity continued drops -- they really brought out their base and increased in every area other than High schools.

I used the 2022 outcome to base a lot of my theories and the numbers for ARISE were worse than they were for UFC, which I also predicted - that ARISE was a diminished UFC which had 7 or 8 components. Nick bragged that the trimmed down to 3 ARISE was so easy to work with. That's very nice and comfortable - for them. The "less is more" theory didn't work in this case. 

• Oh, but what about the retiree and para votes from last spring? They are not automatic and must be worked for. Fix Para Pay is aligned at this point with ABC. So Don't forget the 27k para potential vote. The in-service para vote, with 27k paras, long ignored by the opposition,  may prove more crucial than the retiree vote if we get turnout. Note: A key organizing strategy is taking direct aim at this vote with a plan to fight for para pay instead of the Unity policy of telling them to be happy they have a job.

So this point sort of worked out with 120 paras running with ABC but we had hoped to do much better despite tripling ARISE and getting 1500 more functional votes than UFC did in 2022. That was due mostly to paras but the Unity push for 10k para bonuses (a smart election ploy, still unrealized) worked and the hoped-for tap into the 27k para vote was only partially successful. ABC also aimed to tap into other functional areas like OT/PT and nurses and probably did. But the Unity campaign worked - compare 2025 to 2022.

 

• ABC with a drastic new approach to not just running in the election but open to taking the election-building process out from behind closed doors and get more rank and file involved - and it has been working. Sample: 100 showed for a zoom for paras and district 75 on Tuesday, and over 50 for a High School zoom Wednesday, including chapter leaders from large high schools, including some key people from Unity.That followed a general meeting with 260 people. Think each in-service having some kind of network outreach in their schools. ABC is building the broadest coalition and still invites all legacy caucus members and supporters to run on the ABC independent slate with no labels. Already some have signed up to run. Is it enough yet? No. But there's a long way to go before ballots go out in May and petitioning starting Feb. 12. And ABC has the petition king: ME.

Well, I was pleasantly surprised at how relatively easy the petitioning was compared to 2022, with loads of ABC retiree and active people coming out to assist. Even I underestimated the vigor of ABCers. The one snag, if you call it that, was how aggressive ABC people were in recruiting candidates in the final week which forced us to spend the final weekend processing them - every candidate needed wet signature which made things difficult. A delightful snag. If we had another week we would have run a full slate of 750.

• Almost 40% of Trump supporters in NYS are in a union and many of them in the UFT and also anti-Mulgrew. Many have been non-voters in the past. With an ABC option that is focused on bread and butter and without a leftist ideology reputation, they may vote. Some will say how dare you hope Trump supporters vote for you? How dare I run to win.   

ABC WAS WILLING TO TALK TO ALL UFT MEMBERS AND AVOIDS PURGES AND SHUNNING -  HORRORS!

 

ABC has been vilified for trying to keep communication open to a wide variety of UFT members and focused on what members felt were important in their schools. Some in ARISE bragged about how moral and progressive they were and branded ABC as right wing troglodytes despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of key activists had a long record of progressive politics. 

When you run to win, you have to be willing to listen to everyone and not set up ideological walls -- you know, not call fellow UFT members you disagree with "deplorable."   

 

In recent discussions during the vote count when I asked some of the ARISE people why run if you know you will lose, the response was to "get our ideas and visions out". The thinking is that long-term they can win enough progressives over. I respond that you will have little influence unless you can win and then have the full resources of the UFT to try to win people over in a democratic and transparent process. But running in elections is embedded in the DNA of caucuses and don't be surprised to see it happen again in 2028.

 

Unity bummed at how poorly ARISE did 

The biggest disappointment to Unity was how bad ARISE did as ABC emerged as the big oppo dog. For ABC, it should try to convince the independent minds in ARISE to work with ABC in the next election while also continuing to work with their caucuses which could still use the election process and save their resources to promote their positions. They could still put out a leaflet and flood the mail boxes while not running --- a position I advocated for MORE in my final days there in late 2018 before the 2019 election. That helped get me kicked out of MORE. 

Split in MORE - Results strengthen the "don't run wing"

Back in August/September when MORE was debating whether to run at all, run alone or run in coalition, a strong group of 35 out of 160 who voted (what happened to the 500 MORE members?) were against running in coalition "with people who do not share their values." That says a lot about MORE and the lack of GOTV. In the vote to accept the coalition only 70 MOREs voted. 

 

The pro-coalition group knew full well that NAC had little pull in the schools but did have a large group of retirees who would do the work. NAC believed MORE had the horses in the schools to pull out votes. RA was viewed by both as the big retiree dog and the failure on that end is clear. 

 

I will say that inside ABC, while not wanting to run in an election with a group having the MORE label, the feelings about individuals in MORE have not been negative while there is a lot more people pissed off at NAC and RA. A lot of the ABC crowd are thankful to the people in MORE for informing them of the urinal attack on Amy. I think on the person to person level we may see some cooperation on common issues. 

 

 

NEXT: I will breakdown the elem, ms and hs results. 

 

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